30DaysofPoker.com

An Experiment in Excessive Poker Play

Bah! Sometimes I really Love/*Hate* poker. So, over the course of 12 hours I managed to play 24 $2+0.16 double up sit-n-gos. Ten wins and fourteen losses. *Sigh* My starting stack of $110.19 has shrunk to $98.35. While this wasn’t a very productive session, I did win about $35 over the previous three weeks at this game, and about $15 since the blitz day, so I am not giving up on this format yet.

I performed a Key Pot analysis for this session of games. Key pots are pots where 50% or more of my stack is being committed to the hand. An analysis of these should give me an idea of how I am performing “when it counts”. This doesn’t really tell me if I am stealing enough, but I would hope I am “getting it in there” with better hands than my opponents.

Averaging the wins-vs-losses for all of the Key Pots gives me a win rate of 42.55%, however based upon the strength of the hands that I played I should have won 51.81% of the time. That is a variance of 9.26%. Seems a little unlucky to me.

I also noted a few hands that I believe were errors (8 actually). If we remove the errors from the analysis my statistical win rate should have been 59.28%. This is a nice improvement, (roughly 3:2 over my opponents) and reinforces the fact that you have to play excellent, error-free poker to be profitable.

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It has been quite a while since I have posted, but I have found an online game that I have really been enjoying. Sportsbook.com has a “double up” six handed game, $2+0.16 buy-in that seems to work well for me. Starting chips 1,500 - blinds 10/20. Top three players win $4.00, so the rake is 7.4%. Games take about 20-30 min. to play. Since it is short handed and turbo-ish (7 min. blinds) there is plenty of loose, aggressive action for me to take advantage of. Most players seem relatively new to the game and make fundamental errors.

So, I am going to play a full day blitz of this game and see where that takes me. My beginning bank roll is $110.19 which gives me 51 buy-ins. This should be playing plenty deep for this game. There are other buy-ins for this game format at $3.24 and $5.40 but that would leave me with 34 or 20 buy-ins. 20 buy-ins is pretty borderline, so I think I will try this price out for now, and maybe play another level up next time.

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A day of online poker, playing on sportsbook.com. I like their 1 table double up format games. I play for a while and win 4, lose 2.

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Exciting news … The World Poker Tour is coming to Florida! I saw a press release that the WPT and Seminole Gaming have a partnership adding a televised WPT event in Florida in the Spring of 2011. It’s a $10,000 buyin event at either the Hard Rock Tampa or Hard Rock Hollywood. Since the Florida poker laws changed this July 1st, I guess this is now possible. Save up, let’s all satellite into this event!

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Today was a rough one … computer issues, a doctor’s appointment with my sister and a mysterious fish tank leak ate up my day (I have a 110 gallon tank, so no leak is minor). It’s too late to travel, so a little online action is in order.

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Wow, I am completely burnt out today. I wasn’t able to get it together enough to get to a brick and mortar casino, so I am going to play a sit-n-go online.

I play a small stakes sit-n-go on UltimateBet and or course, it goes badly. I flop a set and my opponent gets his flush. There goes 1/3 of my stack. I flop 2 pair and my opponent gets a set. There goes 1/2 of my remaining stack. I flop top pair and a flush draw and my opponent has a set. I lose the remainder of my stack and go out 7th out of 9 players.

I’m going to go to Hard Rock Tampa tomorrow, hope I can get some traction there.

Wish me luck!