I performed a Key Pot analysis for this session of games. Key pots are pots where 50% or more of my stack is being committed to the hand. An analysis of these should give me an idea of how I am performing “when it counts”. This doesn’t really tell me if I am stealing enough, but I would hope I am “getting it in there” with better hands than my opponents.

Averaging the wins-vs-losses for all of the Key Pots gives me a win rate of 42.55%, however based upon the strength of the hands that I played I should have won 51.81% of the time. That is a variance of 9.26%. Seems a little unlucky to me.

I also noted a few hands that I believe were errors (8 actually). If we remove the errors from the analysis my statistical win rate should have been 59.28%. This is a nice improvement, (roughly 3:2 over my opponents) and reinforces the fact that you have to play excellent, error-free poker to be profitable.

Blitz Key Pots

So, I am going to play a full day blitz of this game and see where that takes me. My beginning bank roll is $110.19 which gives me 51 buy-ins. This should be playing plenty deep for this game. There are other buy-ins for this game format at $3.24 and $5.40 but that would leave me with 34 or 20 buy-ins. 20 buy-ins is pretty borderline, so I think I will try this price out for now, and maybe play another level up next time.

My general strategy:

• Play one table only, focus, pay attention to player tendencies
• Rarely slow-play (top set, no draw on board or better), value bet a lot – most players are loose/aggro (flip it for the tighter/better opponents)
• Pick my spots strategically, no need to get carried away with chip leader when 4 handed
• Careful about calling short stack all-ins, don’t double them up needlessly, keep them down, pick on them
• If I get down in chips, Fight on! Don’t give up, Play the best I can in every situation
• If I get short stacked, play relatively straightforward – let my opponents make the mistake. Unless they take to avoiding my raises, then open up some. Pay attention to immediate odds when I am short stacked.
• Bet sizing around 50%-75% of the pot should be appropriate in most situations. This will allow me to get away from borderline situations without much damage, and still win a good portion of the pots I bet at.

Opening Round (Blinds 10/20, 25/50) - Feel free to “Junk in” for some hands (not up-downs), I am happy to speculate for the first ~10% of my stack with the chance of flopping a monster and taking a player out. The implied odds are huge here, so it makes good poker sense. Don’t bother raising to thin the field or force a big laydown, they just call when they have almost any hand any draw. Raise for value. Just be careful when the huge all-in re-raise comes … could be the actual nuts, they are junking in too! Position and image don’t seem to matter much at these blind levels. Slow down if I get down to ~1,300 or so.

Middle Rounds (Blinds 50/100, 75/150) – Hopefully 1 or 2 players are out by now, or seriously crippled. If no-one is out, be careful, this is probably a better field than normal. Start occasionally stealing pre-flop and post-flop from the tighter/better players, particularly in position and if my image is tight. This is still a tricky/maneuvering stage of the game. Small ball raises start to work with certain fields.

Late Rounds (Larger blinds, probably only 4 players) – Avoid mixing it up with the big stacks. Short stacks are getting desperate, open up all-in calling requirements against them. Steal post-flop from the middle stacks, they should be afraid of becoming a short stack. Position is key at this point for stealing, a tight image helps a lot too.

Well, wish me luck! I will follow up with the results.

Daytona Beach Kennel Club Sign

It’s my final day and I am at Daytona Beach Kennel Club again, to play the $225 tourney. An additional $10 for dealer addon and $5 to the royal flush jackpot. The poker room is also having their annual freeroll event, winner gets to chose from 6 envelopes. 3 contain “Cars” (Mustang, Charger and Camero) and the other 3 contain cash $5k, $7.5k and $10k. Nice freeroll jackpots! While my tourney is playing, the table next to ours is the final table for the freeroll event, and the gentleman who wins picks an envelope that wins him a brand new Mustang!

My tourney is a deepstack event, with 11,500 starting chips. 2 tables fill up and cards roll. The first hand I play is 66, and I flop a set and win a decent pot. I hit runner runner nut flush with As9s and win another pot. I am at 14,400 in chips now. I raise to 800 with QQ and get one caller. Flop comes Q44 and I am very excited. I check, he checks… so far the slowplay is on. Turn is another 4 and he moves allin. I call and he shows AQ … ugly turn for him as I take him out. 22,400 in chips now. We are now down to 12 people and the tourney pays top 3 spots. 

I survive to the final table with 17,800 in chips. My chips get whittled down to 13,300 and there are 8 people left now. I get QQ again and raise big pre-flop from mid position and get 2 callers. Flop comes 953 and the first player bets 5,000. I act a little unsure and move allin for about 9,000 hoping to get a caller, but the player to act after me (big stack bully) moves allin on top of me. The first player reluctantly folds, I show my QQ and Mr. BigStack shows 99 for a flopped set…. Arg! I go out in 8th. I don’t see how I could avoid this hand, so… oh well.

Daytona Beach Kennel Club Sign

Today I played 1/2 no limit in the Daytona Beach Kennel Club Poker Room. Not many interesting hands for the first couple of hours, I fold a few pots and win a nice one with a turned nut flush and another with KK. However, I am in Seat 9 and Seat 1 is playing like a complete donkey. He has doubled up to $200 and is playing every pot. Calling Calling … and hitting! Poor players who get into luckbox mode drive me crazy. 

I am down to about $75 from my original $100 buyin, I raise it to $12 pre flop with 77. Mr Luckbox calls me and the board comes AQ8. I get carried away here (a little on tilt against this guy …) and bet $16. He calls, and I decide I can push him off this pot, even if he does have a weak ace. I bet $26 on the turn, and he raises me allin. I call my last $15 in disgust and he shows A7 for top pair with a weak kicker and the win. I leave in a huff… 

I definitely made a couple mistakes here, but my play wasn’t completely hopeless. I had a very tight table image. I think I only showed KK and the nut flush. I hadn’t played a hand in quite a while. This should have made my flop and turn bluffs reasonable against observant players who would be concerned about my representing a powerful hand.  However, I think this guy was to oblivious to notice, and only plays his cards. He was in love with a pair of Aces, 7 kicker and probably would never lay it down to any bets. These factors should have made me slow down. I also should have slowed down when two overcards to my 77 came on the flop, the A and Q were definitely within his range. A little tilt and too much aggression against a calling station cost me my stack.  *Sigh* another lesson learned.

Matador Sign

My usual Thursday game at Matador tonight, and quite frankly I only played one real pot. A9 with a board of 287-T. At this point (I know my opponent here) and bet big. He moves in on top of me and I believe I am behind to a pair. I have the open ended straight draw and one overcard ( I’m estimating 11 outs here – aboud 20% or so to win) and his raise is giving me the right price since I bet big into him. I have to call, and he turns over 69 for the made straight. Ouch… I am drawing to a chop… and don’t get there.

Bye bye chips …. See you another time!

Hard Rock Tampa

Today I am playing at Hard Rock again, but the buy in is $240+$10 dealer addon. This is a significant slice of my stack, but go big or go home! Right? Starting stacks are 7,500 for this tourney and there are about 34 entrants. I get seat 1 at table 1-1 … Sound lucky to you? 

Blinds are 50/100 and I play AQ and get a Q high flop, no further calls and I win a small pot. Blinds are 75/150 I raise to 450 with AQ and get a flop of 9TJ. I bet 900 and get one caller. Turn is a blank and we check check. River K gives me the super straight and I bet 1,250 and my opponent folds a J face up! Nice read by him. I have 8,400 in chips now. I limp with 55 in late position and get a flop of A24. A wild unpredictable player at the table bets 500 and I call with my over pair and gutshot. Turn is a blank and check check. River is a T and he bets 1,100… I take a long think and finally call him thinking he couldn’t have hit the River, and he shows QQ for the win. Oh well… I am now down to 5,900 and blinds are up to 100/200. 

I play KK from the cutoff and get called. Flop comes KJ4 and we check check. Turn is a deuce and we bet like crazy, getting it allin and he shows 22 for the lower set. River J makes it a win for me. 12,300 in chips now.  I win another nice hand with 99 -vs- 88 with a liberal amount of checking late. 16,200 in chips now. I win another nice pot with Q3 from the big blind in a limped 5 way pot when the flop comes 332. 11 people are left now. I raise and take it with JJ and am now at 21,400 in chips. We are down to 9 now and I raise with KhJd and my nemesis at the table calls. After a flop of 2c3c7s, he moves allin and I have to fold. Ugg… down to 14,200 in chips now. Blinds are huge now, 800/1,600 and after a couple orbits I am down to 10,000 in chips. A chop has been brought up about 3 times, but the 3 big stack players won’t agree to it. I raise and take it with 55 from late position, another player busts and we are down to 7 players. 

I am super short stack here but hanging on by the skin of my teeth, have only about 3 or 4 big blinds left, and finally one of the chip leaders suggests a chop scenario that everybody agrees to. Chop value 7 ways is $1,428. He suggest the 2 short stacks take $1,000 the 2 middle stacks take the standard chip of $1,428 and the 3 big stacks divide the rest ($1,713). I jump at the chance, everyone agrees and we chop it up! Nice win for me, I was about to go out soon… for no money. 

Everyone actually congratulates me for making it long enough to make the chopped money (it was obvious I have been on life support for a while). I believe my friendly personality helped me here, If I was a jerk I am sure the big stacks would have gunned for me to get me out and a more profitable chop scenario. I take my $1,000, tip the dealer $30 and give Big H his buyin insurance of $240 (that’s $480 profit after my initial buyin of $250). Whee! … Biggest win yet! and it was a squeaker… 

Btw … every time the tables broke and we moved, I got Seat 1 at the new table … lol. I don’t believe in luck, but that is some coincidence.

Chip and a Chair. – Probably Doyle Brunson. 

Lesson learned, never give up!

Hard Rock Tampa

Today is the Hard Rock $120 + $10 dealer addon, 6,000 starting chips. Big H has come along to help me bust this tourney. There is only about 31 entrants today and Tourney pays top 5. First hand I play is AJ -vs- A9 with a flop of QJ9 and win a decent sized pot. I win another reasonable pot with AQ when the flop comes AQ6. Now at 9,500 in chips. I win another pot with Ah7h when the board comes ATQblankblank, and we check it down. 11,300 in chips now. 

Seat 9 makes a move, 2 hands in a row, that infuriates me. A player is allin and he bets into a dry side pot. The first time He has one pair, and loses … I would have rivered trips for the win! In the second pot he had a set, bets me off, and loses … but I would have chopped with the allin player to reduce his win. Both times he should have left me in the pot to help take out the allin player, but instead bet into me. I have to fold – It is unusual to bet in this situation unless you have a near lock hand. This Guy! Arg! 

I win a decent pot with TT and am back up to 11,600 in chips. I take out a player with QQ -vs- QJ and have 13,700 in chips now. We are down to two tables now, and I am down to 11,200 after the blinds come through me (1,200/600). I play Q8 from the big blind, and the flop comes 567. I have an open ended straight draw and two overs, and bet 2,000. One caller, and the turn is a deuce. I bet 4,000 and he calls. River J, I check he checks and he shows K2 for the win… blah. Can’t hit and can’t bet that board. I am down to 4,000 in chips now after my first miss-step of the tourney. Blinds are high, so I am in trouble here. I move allin with As3s and get one caller late. My opponent has 99 and the flop comes 659 for a set for him. I go out in 12th position. 

Betting the draw on that one hand was the defining mistake of this game for me, I guess I should have drove it harder or not at all. 

Oh well, lesson learned.

I have KK in position UTG+1 and raise to 1,200 (blinds 200/400 with 50 ante). Mr. R calls and the flop comes Q high. I check and he checks. Turn adds 2 hearts to the board and I bet 1,200. He calls and the river comes a blank. I check and Mr. R goes allin. I snap call and win. He had a missed straight draw. I now have about 15k in chips. We get down to 4 handed and we agree to tip the bubble $20 to relieve the pain a little. I win another good sized pot with K2 -vs- Asomething when the board comes AKK. I bet 2,400 preflop with 66 and get a caller of AJ. My opponent goes allin and I take a long think. I call and a 6 comes on the flop and I get a double up to about 33,000 in chips. I am now co-chip leader. 89 -vs- A7 on a flop of 979 and I get all my money in and take out another person. We are 2 handed now and roughly even in chips and decide to chop to $365.

After the game, Big H, Miss S and I play veitnamese poker and I win another $8.50. I’m hot tonight!

Starting stack is 1,500 with blinds at 25/50. First game I play I win a good sized pot with 67 when the flop comes Q7837, where I am betting the whole way and my opponents call to the river, then fold. Soon after I get all my money in with TT against QQ and lose. I am now down to 76 in chips! I push allin with A5 UTG and the board come A99J6 and I win. Now 304 in chips. Next hand I move allin with AKo and no callers. 404 in chips now. I push allin with KJ -vs- AT and a board of 445J3 saves me. I now have 958 in chips. I push allin with 88 and everyone folds. 1108 in chips now. Whee coming back from the dead is fun! I have Ad9d and the board comes 6d3d7h. I push allin with two overcards, a flush draw and runner-runner straight draw, my opponent calls me with 63 for 2 pair. Turn 7 and River 9 give me a better 2 pair. Ugly win … I win some more chips with KQ when the board comes KQ3 and I have  2126 in chips. Another player busts out, and I cash in this game!

Wow… I was on life support and somehow managed a comeback.

Save The Boobies

Today is a charity event at Sip, a bar close to me, run by Orlando Hold’em. The charity is Libby’s Legacy which deals with breast cancer screening for people without health insurance. Entry fee is $30 + $10 for last man standing. 45 people are signed up, and starting stacks are 2,200. 

First hand I play is KK for a reasonable win of 450 in chips. Next hand I play is the nut flush vs a King high straight, and my opponent can’t get away from her hand. AA vs JJ allins and my Aces hold up. Nice rush going here. 4,800 in chips now. 

I get AsKs in late position and seat 4 raises to 350 and I call. Board comes K83 rainbow. Seat 4 bets 350 and I raise to 900. Now, I know this player and just got a great “strong” read on a previous hand, and told him I had a read on him. He is playing the statue now, so I feel he is strong and self conscience of his tell. He snap calls my re-raise! Turn is a 9… no apparent help but he bets 1,200. I am completely tortured here … I have about 1/4 of my stack in the pot, but a fold leaves me with a good sized stack. I am getting wary that this guy can beat top-top and this bet of 1,200 into a pot of 2,500 is begging for a call. I fold my AK face up saying “this might be a bad fold, but I don’t think this is good”. 

 ”Never go broke on a pair”  – Anon

On break, we trade info. I explain my tell on him and he tells me what he had in that hand. When he made a bet with his very strong hand, he said his bet with a questioning tone, as if he was unsure … this is a reliable tell for a strong hand. Acting weak usually means strong. He says he had K9 in that hand, which would mean he turned two pair on me. He also said he thought he was ahead the whole way, so I was reading his emotions correctly, but mis-judging what he thought a strong hand is. This is a common problem at casual poker games. You might read a player for feeling strong, but what does that mean for this particular player? 

Miss newbie enters the tourney late, and gets a heart breaker of a first pot. She plays 44 and gets a flop of 754 and she and her opponent get it allin. He shows 55 for set over set and Miss Newbie goes out. Ouch. 

I play a few more hands and the blinds are getting steep. I bluff at a pot and get caught. Oops. I win a pot with A3off. I end up short because the blinds are so high now. I have T7 in the big blind and the flop come JT6 … allin I go and pray for no callers. Uh oh, I get called and sure enough he has a J. My day is done. 

Big H however, fares a little better and wins the tourney and the last man standing. Nice cash for him!

Robin of Libby's Legacy