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An Experiment in Excessive Poker Play

Bah! Sometimes I really Love/*Hate* poker. So, over the course of 12 hours I managed to play 24 $2+0.16 double up sit-n-gos. Ten wins and fourteen losses. *Sigh* My starting stack of $110.19 has shrunk to $98.35. While this wasn’t a very productive session, I did win about $35 over the previous three weeks at this game, and about $15 since the blitz day, so I am not giving up on this format yet.

I performed a Key Pot analysis for this session of games. Key pots are pots where 50% or more of my stack is being committed to the hand. An analysis of these should give me an idea of how I am performing “when it counts”. This doesn’t really tell me if I am stealing enough, but I would hope I am “getting it in there” with better hands than my opponents.

Averaging the wins-vs-losses for all of the Key Pots gives me a win rate of 42.55%, however based upon the strength of the hands that I played I should have won 51.81% of the time. That is a variance of 9.26%. Seems a little unlucky to me.

I also noted a few hands that I believe were errors (8 actually). If we remove the errors from the analysis my statistical win rate should have been 59.28%. This is a nice improvement, (roughly 3:2 over my opponents) and reinforces the fact that you have to play excellent, error-free poker to be profitable.

Blitz Key Pots